Interesting brief article in The [Non] Billable Hour on a possible “Kodak moment” for lawyers.
He includes a must-see graph that compares the total number of photos taken per year and the number of “analog” (film) photos taken that year. Note how the film photo rate has fallen off a cliff. I’m sure this is no surprise, even though seeing it in stark black and white (or pink and pinker) really brings it home.
(I’ve been able to track this graph back to the 1000 Memories blog. I don’t know if it’s original there, since there’s no copyright notice on it. I’ve shown it in reduced form here; look at the original for full impact.)
Anyway, it’s the last line of Matt Homann’s post that is particularly interesting:
It also made me wonder about the wisdom of those who assert that clients’ continuing need for legal services is an accurate predictor of those same clients’ need to hire lawyers.
Agree or disagree, it’s a thought-provoking question. The needs for legal solutions won’t decrease any more than the desire to take photos has decreased. Rather, will alternative solutions manifest themselves. (See my article on Jacoby & Meyers acquiring a forms company, for example.)
Risk Analysis/Project Management Approach
Part of project management is risk analysis. Multiply the likelihood of the risk by the cost should the risk come to pass in order to estimate your exposure. A $1,000,000 risk with a 10% probability is in most project circumstances less worrisome than a $200,000 risk with an 80% chance of occurring.1 (Both are scary; I’m talking about relative risks and determining where to focus.)
Matt’s question posits a multi-billion-dollar risk collectively to law firms. The question is, what’s the probability?